Congress passed legislation mandating

03 May

It’s clear to me that the right people want it to happen, at least.

Whether they will get what they want is a slightly different question.

For the last 13 years, that strategy has worked spectacularly. And every year, my team gets emails from disappointed readers who didn’t it would sell out. I’ll organize this letter around four key themes that I think we will discuss frequently in the next 12 months: US politics, energy, China, and Europe. Markets have rallied since November on the expectation that Trump and the Republicans will quickly enact a growth-oriented economic agenda, including tax cuts, regulatory relief, and targeted economic stimulus projects.

Then I’ll wrap up with an overarching problem that’s also an opportunity – if we treat it as one. As I talk to people involved in the transition, I am gaining more confidence that a good part of that agenda will actually be realized.

They want to show progress, and they think quick passage of some popular measures will buy them credibility to use later.

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The hard part is getting agreement on the big items like taxes and healthcare reform.In that situation, you can at least stop and consult your map. As we’ll see, a great deal will happen in the first third of the year that could (and likely will) radically change the course of events in the last two-thirds. Maybe that’s just another way of repeating the forecast I’ve given you for the last seven years running: My base case is that we will Muddle Through one more year, but with the potential for hitting some serious speed bumps as we round the turn. Please notice that I’m not saying run for the shelters. So today’s letter will allow me to finish that thought.Today’s reality is you don’t have a map, and you can’t stop because you are on one of those airport-style moving sidewalks. Furthermore, the possible outcomes are in the hands of inherently unpredictable individual humans otherwise known as politicians (and not just in the US, thank you very much! I’ll tell you both why I’m optimistic and why I’m skeptical. We’ve just opened the registration page for the 14th annual Strategic Investment Conference, which takes place May 22–25 in sunny Orlando.The GOP is also intent on hacking back some of the regulatory tentacles that have impeded progress (and especially job growth) in some industries.They intend to employ a rarely used law called the Congressional Review Act to reverse some of the Obama administration’s regulations.